MATHEMATICS PROGRAMME

Mathematics Programme is an Academic Department , which was set-up specifically to realize some of the goals and objectives of the Centre and the new vision conceived by the Executive Director of the Centre, Professor S. O. Ale, OFR,mni, FIMA, FMAN.

We are for now fundamentally concerned with modeling activity and forming coalition between researchers and fieldworks in areas of Ecology, Disease Control, Population Dynamics, Industrial Mathematics and other areas of Mathematics.  We are on red alert combat ready to face any challenge that may be posed on us.

Assoc. Prof. B.O. Oyelami, is the coordinator.

Currently, the Department's priorities are:

• The Department has several consultants and associate members drawn from within the Centre and various universities in Nigeria and abroad. Our Mission Our Mission and Vision Statements as conveyed in several of our proposals and it is: To improve the health of people and the environment through mathematical models.  We also have saying like: God has ordained man to conquer the environment and preserve nature in a way to be suitable to his existence, and  Finally, The beauty of good high quality empirical data can only be best seen and appreciated when simulated using a good mathematical model.   FUNCTIONS The Mathematics Programme is saddled with the following functions: To conduct research in every area of human endeavour where mathematics is found applicable; To conduct research through the use modelling/simulation on diseases like HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, Malaria, Sickle Cell, Thalaseamia and other tropical diseases, support any initiative that reduce the mortality and incidence of the diseases through advocacy, mobilization, programme communication, etc; To source funds for the Centre to establish an ecological unit at the Centre.  This unit will be established for purpose of providing information on Nigeria desertification, ecological problem such as drought, flood, erosion, pollution, pestilence and desert encroachment; Source fund for research facilities through (a) and (b) for the Centre.  These include getting computers, laptops, software, audio-visual aids, cars, etc, that may need to realize set goals. Organizing workshops and conferences in line with the Centre’s mandate; Making publications as related to projects in the programme; Provide logistic support to other programmes and units in the Centre where necessary; Participate in any activity that allows realization of Centre’s mandate; Collaborate with other Research Centres, Government Agencies, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOS), Community Based Organizations (COBS), International Organizations and other stakeholders; and Develop training materials relevant to our proposed vision.   The Executive Summary of the demographic update of diseases to be considered Like poverty, the HIV/AIDS epidemic is affecting the sub-continent of Sahara Africa more severely then any part of the continent.  Nigeria is noted to have more than 6.0% seroprevalence in the year 2003 translating to about 5 million persons living with HIV virus mostly youth – the creator nation’s wealth and whose family succession depends.   It is claimed that South Africa has the highest HIV pandemic in the world.  Majority of youth are living with HIV, farming activity is gradually grounding to halt and famine is ravaging the sub-region.  It is an established fact that sexual network is on increase among the youths.  The consequence of this is HIV/AIDS endemicity.  The population of orphans whose parent(s) died from AIDS is on increase.  The population of children dropping out of schools and indulging street begging is on increase because their parents/sponsors of died of AIDS.  This is why the National Mathematical Centre rose up to the clarion call to help in the control of the spread of HIV and to reduce its mortality.  We have developed mathematical models to obtain situation analysis, test potency of any intervention strategy, develop geographic information system and management information system.  The Centre has piloted studies intended to reduce the incidence rate of the HIV among young people (15-24) years, especially, women of reproductive age and children (0 – 4 years).   Malaria sickness (malariasis or plasmodiasis) is still the undisputedly lending scourge of the sub-sahara in particular.  It is responsible for greater mortality and morbidity.  As a result of the morbidity, man-hour loss equivalent to several millions of Naira are incurred yearly.  All ages and sexes are susceptible to malaria sickness. Tuberculosis ranked ten among the world topmost causes of global mortality.  WHO has estimated that about 33% of the world population is infected with disease and each year about 1.8 million die from the disease.  Tuberculosis situation is worst in Africa and Southern Europe because it is a cofactor in the spread of HIV/AIDS.   What kind of Models to be used? We will use the existing models and even developed epidemiological, demographic, chemotherapeutic, nutrition as well as sexual behavioural models, intervention strategy models to: Monitor HIV/AIDS infection rate; Determine the relationship between AIDS mortality and HIV seroprevalence; Develop management information System (MIS) to keep track of the people affected by HIV/AIDS; Adopt the DOTS programme for tuberculosis, and monitor prevalence, incidence and mortality of Tuberculosis in Nigeria; Identify the risk site for malaria and provide necessary theory, or therapy for the control of malaria as contained in the Roll-Back malaria (RBM) agenda e.g., provision of insecticide treated bed net, anti-resistant malaria drugs, and mosquito control through natural products; Champion the campaign to eradicate/control diseases proposed in this research project by considering the educational status of people.  We will be involved in activities on advocacy, mobilization and communication for disease control in Nigeria; Respond to any challenge that may emanate in the process; Identify the percentage contribution, due to sex activity groups, age group and economic class in HIV/AIDS prevalence and the reduction required.   We want to know how does HIV/AIDS: Lead to child labour, street begging and exploitation in the society; Affects Education For All (EFA) UN millennium set goals.   We want to estimate the population of: Young women who have adequate knowledge to avoid contacting HIV; Children of 0-4 years that are affected by HIV/AIDS within a given timeline.   We intend also to calculate as accurate as possible: The overall effect of HIV/AIDS on women and children; How the incident increasing of HIV brought variation in demographic health and economic indicators of Nigeria as far as women and children are concerned; Using simulation techniques develop computer software to process HIV/AIDS data and to extend it other diseases as well.   ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM Ecology is all about the interaction of living organisms with the environment.  The need to evaluate the effect of human on his environment and to develop a control to minimize environment degradation is increasingly becoming inevitable globally.   The environment is continuously disturbed intermittently by natural disasters like Earth tremor, flood, earthquake, desert encroachment and global warming.  Moreover, the occasional invasion of farmland by quiver birds, locus, monkeys, elephants and cattle.  The aftermath of the invasion often result in serious incalculable loss of lives and properties.   Furthermore, man through his bye-product has endangered his life and that of biomass in the biosphere.  This is done through the production of toxics products in firm of gasoline, poisonous hydrocarbon, solvents, pesticide, insecticides, heavy metal like aluminum, lead and mercury which posses serious danger to people’s health.  In Nigeria, there are several natural and man made disasters such as overflowing of beach, collapse of dams and lakes, flaring of gasses leading to global warming and entropy trap.  Oil spillages and water erosion, outbreak of pests, animal encroachment on farmland and outbreak of disease that are water and air borne.  Considering the low foreign reserve and low per capital income of Nigeria, prevention of ecological disasters is the most viable Ecological Management Policy the country should adopt.  The use of traditional fire bridge approach in solving the ecological problems when it happened cannot give a long lasting solution.   The present proposal (NO. 2C) has been developed considering the need to prepare for the unforeseeable future and to formulate strategy to arrest ecological problems. Environmental Conservation and Ecological management have been receiving global recognition.  Many countries are devoting substantial resources and energy on Environmental Impact Assessment Programme (EIA) and even inculcating EIA studies in their national planning.  The problem and solution to environmental problems through the use of mathematical ecology is becomingly indispensable today.   The strategy formulated in the Proposal (NO. 2C) which can only be realized if an ecological Unit is established at the National Mathematical Centre, Abuja, Nigeria can be translated into National Policy back-up with enabling laws and funding.   In Nigeria problems that call for ecological study like many countries in the world are the following: Flood as a result of break of dams, lakes, overflow of beaches; Desert encroachment leading to population emigration; Flaring of gases leading to global warming and entropy trap.  Emission of excess carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as a result of burning of fossil fuels, thereby creating green house effect.  This green house effect will cause a marked rise in temperature in the environment.  The environmental climatic change will have impact on agricultural production, human health and global ecology, including the possibility of substantial population migration as a result of famine; Oil spillages leading to water pollution, thereby, killing the marine animals and poisoning of land for agricultural purpose.  Moreover, corrosion of petroleum equipment may lead to oil spillages as well; Water erosion creates gullies and wash away roads and houses leading to transportational problems and displacement of persons; Outbreak of pests like locust, caterpillars and encroachment of wild animals such as elephants quiler birds, etc on farm settlements; Outbreak of disease like schistosmomiasis, cholera, meningitis, onchocerciasis, dracucialiasis, hepatitis, etc are on the increase; Fire outbreak that have gulped several millions of Naira worth property and has rendered several thousand of people homeless; Respiratory track infection is on the increase.  Asthma is one of such infection very commonly found among workers in the cement, chalk and asbestos industries, etc; Radioactive material used in medicine, nuclear weapons test in open atmosphere and radioactive materials used in the industry and hospital.  Biological nuclear weapons when used posses danger to Africa where there appears to be no protective device to counteract it. Centre is conducting research on the use of Mathematical models in Fishery, Forestry, Pollution and Environmental degradation, Aquacultural productivity and practice, sea/ocean problems.  Other areas of exploit are dam problem, erosion problem, drought and population of phytoplankton and macrophytes, Species abundance and diversity.         The Centre is soliciting fund to run some of the above projects.  We are also extending our tentacles to collaborate with any organization that the shear ideas or interested in our projects.  Any organization that wishes to cross-pollinate ideals with us is also welcomed.   PRIZE AND SCHOLARSHIP The Co-ordinator is to be listed in the American Biographical Institute Who is Who Contemporary and it’s Hall of Fame for 2002 – 2003 Edition;   The Unit has received many letters of commendation from various organizations and researchers within Nigeria and Abroad on its Initiatives.

  
  
  
  

Mathematics Improvement      

Over the years, the centre in an attempt to revamp mathematics teaching and learning at the lower level, has successfully researched into the causes and remedies for the abysmal failures in WASC, SSCE and JAMB mathematics examination.  It has discovered that poor performance in the promotion/public examinations in mathematics has more to do with the methods of teaching than the content of curricula of the school mathematics.

It is this empirical background that necessitated and spurred the Centre's MIP project to create a new teaching methodology to enhance student's performance in mathematics.  The scheme is an integration of several vital interactive variables such as the content, the student, the mathematical environment, the teacher and the instruction

The vision of the NMC MIP is to improve the teaching and learning of school mathematics with a view to jumpstarting greater performances measurable by the number of credit passes in the public mathematics examination by students in all secondary schools in Nigeria as a foundation for capacity building and manpower development for Nigeria as well as all school mathematics teachers in Nigerian secondary schools.

The set target is 50% increase in the credit passes at SSCE, WASCE, NECO and JAMB mathematics examinations and within two years in the model schools while the set target date is two years.

This project will be tried out in some schools in each state of the Federation.  Each selected pilot school is expected to satisfy the condition of teacher adequacy, while the Centre will use a moving z-score technique to determine the efficiency of the MIP.  Over a decade now,  the Centre has written, tried and perfected the teaching modules for secondary school teachers and pupil books which are to be used as NMC MIP Text books and instruction guidelines along with other textbook published by Mathematical Association of Nigeria (MAN).

The Centre will organize periodically Training, Workshops, and courses for teachers of mathematics in the selected schools using the NMC Teaching Modules and monitoring as well as evaluating the scheme.

The input, out, mechanism, feedback and resources components of the MIP instructional systems will be used as a framework for the examination of the MIP.  The Centre has already perfected the teaching modules, which are being published for distribution to participating schools.  However, the following are still required.

1.. Mass-producing several copies for teachers use throughout the country;

2.   Mass-producing the accompanying students workbook in large quantities;

3.   Regular monitoring of the pilot scheme/schools to ensure compliance with the guidelines, hence, the need for project monitoring vehicles;

4.   Adequate media publicity of the MIP project; and

5.   Provision of computers in the selected schools as a further impetus for the learning of mathematics.

The budget commitment of the Mathematical Improvement Project (MIP) to be established in every State of the Federation is estimated at a total cost of N500 million.